Violent conflict is one of the most serious and least understood risks that companies face in conflict-affected high-risk areas.

It’s serious because it undermines the social, political, and economic foundations that businesses depend on, usually with little warning. It’s hard to understand because it’s complex, doesn’t follow a linear path, and is shaped by histories, grievances, actors, and perceptions that aren’t easily measured. And standard risk assessments tend to track formal governance or past events rather than current tensions and future triggers.

I suspect this is why conflict dynamics rarely show up in corporate ESG or CSR strategies, even when companies are operating in these environments. Conflict may be treated as a political problem, a government responsibility, or an externality. But for companies working in high-risk contexts, it is undeniably a business risk with material consequences: damaged assets, disrupted supply chains, community resistance, stalled operations, and reputational harm.

And most importantly, it is a human rights risk, with implications for people, communities, and companies alike.

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